Distributed Wind Energy Futures Study | Wind Research

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Parcel-Level Modeling for Detailed Insights

Distributed Wind Energy Futures Study | Wind Research — *Graphic by Katie Carney*

The Distributed Wind Energy Futures Study leverages a highly detailed evaluation of more than 150 million U.S. land parcels
to enable a high-resolution view of the landscape of opportunity for distributed wind
deployment. The study uses NLR’s Distributed Wind (dWind) model, a module within the
Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen™) model suite.

To explore this high-resolution dataset, NLR has developed the DW Scenario Analyzer. This tool allows users to explore the key data products of the research. Raw data
are published on the DOE Atmosphere to Electrons (A2e) Wind Data Portal. With this portal, county, ZIP code, and U.S. census block group statistics can be
downloaded to make custom maps or to conduct user-specific analysis.

An Opportunity for Economic Development

The findings show that the potential for distributed wind energy is considerably higher
than previously estimated. We calculate that there are 8,695 GW of distributed wind
technical potential for front-of-the-meter applications in the Baseline 2022 scenario
and 7,796 GW in the Baseline 2035 scenario, which is, on average, 1.8 times more technical
potential in the contiguous United States than previously reported. Similarly, there
is, on average, 2.1 times more technical potential for behind-the-meter applications:
1,749 GW in the Baseline 2022 scenario and 3,743 GW in the Baseline 2035 scenario.

The improved model also highlights additional economic potential for behind-the-meter
applications. Compared to the estimated 4,000 TWh of electricity consumption in the
United States, a substantial fraction of that energy could be generated with distributed
wind technology. Taking the most conservative estimates, 2.5% of demand could be satisfied
using economic behind-the-meter scenarios, and an additional 78.5% of demand could
be satisfied with economic front-of-the-meter scenarios. Additional incentives or net metering regulations (for behind-the-meter scenarios) could allow an even greater potential.

High Potential in Rural and Agricultural Regions

NLR finds the regions with the highest potential for distributed wind tend to have
a combination of high-quality wind, relatively high electricity rates for behind-the-meter
applications, higher wholesale power rates for front-of-the-meter applications, and
siting availability.

The Midwest has the overall highest potential for distributed wind. The Pacific Northwest
and Northeast regions have significant potential for expansion of behind-the-meter
distributed wind deployments. States with the most near-term potential for behind-the-meter
applications include Texas, Minnesota, Montana, Colorado, Indiana, and Oklahoma. States
with the most near-term potential for front-of-the-meter applications include Oklahoma,
Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, and South Dakota.

In alignment with recent programs from the U.S. Department of Agriculture and DOE, we also note significant existing opportunities for distributed wind generation
in agricultural and rural areas: The top 10 states for front-of-the-meter systems
have an annual energy production of 1,199 TWh, and the top 10 states for behind-the-meter
applications have an annual energy production of 19 TWh. Overall, agricultural land
represents 33% of the total distributed wind opportunity for the 2022 behind-the-meter
scenario, and 42% for the 2022 front-of-the-meter scenario, indicating that agricultural
and rural areas represent the greatest opportunity for distributed wind—more than
any other land use type.